The middleweight title fight between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort promises to be great. Belfort is likely the toughest challenger Silva, arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world, has faced since he demolished former Pride middleweight champion Dan Henderson in the UFC/Pride unification bout. Like Silva, Belfort is fast, has knockout power, and can be very elusive in the cage. If Silva’s last title defense against the hard charging Chael Sonnen showed anything, it’s that Silva has a strong chin and can take a lot of punishment from someone who doesn’t really have one-punch knockout power. The best thing Belfort has going for him is he can turn off an opponent’s lights with either hand. The last time an elusive, dominant champion took on a fit, powerful, fast challenger was Lyoto Machida v Shogun Rua II, wherein Rua simply overpowered Machida on his way to a fast win. I expect Belfort to try something similar in the hopes of catching Silva with a barrage that he cannot survive.

With a fighter like Silva, who has gone undefeated in his entire UFC career, it’s always easy to think he is slipping and more vulnerable than ever. And to be sure, he was moments away from losing to Sonnen last time out. But mixed martial arts isn’t about what you do for most of the fight to bloody your opponent – it’s about doing what needs to be done to win. Grappling and submissions ensure that no opponent is ever out. Silva proved that in spades against Sonnen. Silva is the favorite to win (-240 to Belfort’s +190) and rightly so. I can see Belfort overwhelming Silva and catching his chin, but more likely I see Silva finding a way to win, either in a five round war, a timely head kick, or a slick submission.

It’s hard to think of two fighters that more consistently put on great shows than Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin. Franklin’s last performance against Chuck Liddell was literally what makes this sport exciting. Franklin looked to be on the way out in the first round following a high kick from Liddell that broke his left arm when he caught Liddell’s chin with a vicious right and turn out the lights. And, well, Forrest Griffin is Forrest Griffin. These guys are going to come out and bang. Expect a really high strike count and lots of changes of momentum. Neither of these guys will quit if they get in a bad spot and both have one-punch knockout power. There will either be a stunning knockout or this will go the full fifteen minutes – it’s hard to see this end in a submission. Franklin is the favorite, despite being a bit under sized in the 205 lb weight class, especially compared to Griffin. Griffin is one of my favorite fighters, but all I’m hoping for is an exciting fight that shows both fighters are still among the top in the weight class.

Also fighting in the light heavyweight class are the winner of Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter reality show, Ryan Bader, and Jon Jones. These are probably the two fastest rising young stars in any weight class, let alone at 205 pounds. Before I say anything about this particular matchup, I’m going to guess that when Bader/Jones II takes place, one of them will be the UFC’s light heavyweight belt holder. Bader’s standup isn’t as impressive as Jones’ but Bader finds ways to win, regardless of whether or not it’s pretty. Jones, on the other hand, has delivered some truly exciting knockouts and submissions of late. His only loss was to a disqualification in his fight against Matt Hamill for doing a 12-to-6 elbow strike to Hamill’s head. Jones was completely dominating Hamill; he broke Hamill’s shoulder with a trip takedown. When the referee stopped after the downward elbow strike to Hamill to see if Hamill could continue the fight Hamill said no. Unfortunately, Hamill is deaf and did not understand that he was being asked about how he felt from the elbow, not any other injury suffered in the round. That’s not to excuse the stoppage – Jones clearly used illegal elbow strikes and Hamill really was in no shape to continue. The point being, while Jones is 11-1 on paper, his only loss was not due to being out-performed.

While I expect Bader/Jones to be a great fight, Jones is heavily favored (-350) over Bader (+250). I’d really love to see Bader give Jones a hard time, though. It’s been two years since we’ve seen Jones go to a decision and, at some point, he’s going to face an opponent who can take him there. While I would not put money on Bader to win, I can see him challenging Jones as much as anyone since Stephan Bonner.

It’s often the case that the most anticipated fight cards don’t live up to expectations. Hopefully these three fights do, because if they do, they will likely be worth far more than the price of admission.

Photo by Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Fedor Emelianenko, the Russian heavyweight mixed martial artist, has been arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world over the last decade (though in the last three years, I would vote for Anderson Silva or George St. Pierre over Fedor). Now, I’d have to guess that if you’re reading this post, you probably don’t know who Fedor is and there’s a good reason for that. He doesn’t fight in UFC, he’s only fought marginal opponents for the last few years, and he’s only fought sporadically, generally basking on his 10 year unbeaten streak. Without regular pay-per-views promoted by a major, American-based organization, Fedor’s fights were generally limited to the MMA intelligentsia and purchasers of after-the-fact fight DVDs. I’ll be honest: I’ve never seen Fedor fight live and I did not see the fight this past Saturday night.

Part of the reason Fedor never fought in the UFC was a clash of massive egos – his own and Dana White of the UFC’s. Fedor chose to fight in Strikeforce and his presence there made it have a heavyweight division that was arguably better stocked with talent than the UFC. This being the fight business, promotion and hype are key to growth and fan attention. As such, Dana White has waged a war on Fedor, his opponents, and Strikeforce for a long time. Being a heavyweight champion, Fedor and his camp were always offended by the lack of deference by White to him. I had hoped that with the solidification of the UFC’s heavyweight division following the upcoming Brock Lesnar / Shane Carwin fight, White would begin to look for ways to bring one of the most dominant mixed martial artists in the world to the UFC to test his mettle.

I simply cannot see that happening now, after Fedor Emilianenko lost his first fight in ten years on Saturday night, taping out to Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master Fabricio Werdum in the first round.Werdum is truly one of the top BJJ practitioners in the world and probably the best in the heavyweight division. But Fedor’s appeal, for years and years, was that his fight IQ – his ability to see what opponents are doing and get himself out of trouble – allowed him to defeat top-notch submission specialists by capitalizing on opportunities.

Jonathan Snowden points out that Fedor’s physique was the worst it has ever been, though I’m not sure that ice cream and love handles caused him to get caught by Werdum’s triangle choke. Snowden thinks Fedor should drop to down and fight at the 205 pound light heavyweight class, though I think the challenge for Fedor is less one of shedding pounds and more of one of getting into top shape. When you don’t lose for ten years, it’s not surprising that you get a little soft before your downfall. What that really says, though, is that Fedor was not and is not the best pound for pound fighter in the world, let alone the best in the heavyweight division.

It’s sad to me that Fedor’s streak was broken outside of a fight in the UFC. The draw on a Fedor v Lesnar or Fedor v Carwin fight could have been tremendous, though I don’t see how it happens now. Unless Fedor shows us otherwise in a rematch against Werdum, I doubt the UFC would ever pay him to come fight against the cream of their crop.

It’s unfortunate that so much of the Fedor/UFC soap opera was about personalities, arrogance, and business competition, as opposed to competition within the Octagon. Yes, UFC fans who haven’t gotten to see Fedor fight lose out, but I think the real loser is Fedor Emelianenko, for failing to stay at top form and failing to recognize that the UFC has been the ascendant MMA organization for some years now.